Accuracy scoreboard
Every past catalyst is graded after the fact against the announcements that actually followed. Nothing airbrushed — and when we can't yet confirm an outcome, it stays "pending" rather than being guessed.
Outcomes graded
3,238 decided · 2,444 pending
Hit-rate
landed ÷ decided
High-confidence hit-rate
2,299 decided
Avg timing error
landed events · |predicted − actual|
By catalyst category
| Category | Decided | Hit-rate | Avg error | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drilling Results | 601 | 31% | 25.2d | |
| Other | 459 | 0% | — | |
| Regulatory Filing | 424 | 3% | 23.4d | |
| Exploration Update | 289 | 78% | 24.7d | |
| Capital Raise | 223 | 5% | 15.4d | |
| Production Update | 177 | 6% | 15.5d | |
| Resource Estimate | 122 | 15% | 22.7d | |
| Clinical Trial | 115 | 20% | 31.0d | |
| Earnings | 101 | 2% | 2.0d | |
| Guidance | 99 | 1% | 30.0d | |
| Project Development | 74 | 46% | 29.1d | |
| Contract Award | 68 | 1% | 30.0d | |
| Acquisition | 64 | 6% | 17.5d | |
| Corporate Action | 60 | 13% | 17.0d | |
| Financial / Cashflow | 51 | 10% | 9.4d | |
| Feasibility Study | 43 | 60% | 24.0d | |
| Permitting | 42 | 64% | 29.2d | |
| Exploration | 41 | 0% | — | |
| Management Change | 31 | 16% | 17.8d | |
| Annual General Meeting | 30 | 17% | 16.6d | |
| Investor Presentation | 24 | 17% | 12.5d | |
| Metallurgical Results | 20 | 70% | 19.4d | |
| Trading Halt | 17 | 0% | — | |
| Partnership / JV | 16 | 13% | 8.5d | |
| Debt Financing | 10 | 30% | 16.7d | |
| Commercialisation | 6 | 67% | 19.8d | |
| Investment | 6 | 17% | 27.0d | |
| Product Update | 5 | 0% | — | |
| Corporate | 4 | 0% | — | |
| Grant / Non-dilutive | 4 | 25% | 9.0d | |
| Legal / Litigation | 4 | 0% | — | |
| Drilling | 2 | 0% | — | |
| Drilling Program | 2 | 0% | — | |
| Dividend | 1 | 0% | — | |
| Exploration Results | 1 | 0% | — | |
| Shareholder Meeting | 1 | 0% | — | |
| Strategic Review | 1 | 0% | — |
"Decided" = landed + missed · withdrawn & pending excluded · Regraded twice daily · Last graded 16 Oct 2026
Method notes
Every catalyst we publish is stamped with its predicted date and confidence grade. After the window passes, we look for a later announcement of the same category from the same company near the predicted date.
Landed = a corroborating announcement appeared within ±60 days of our predicted date. The signed gap between the two is the timing error we report.
Missed = no corroboration appeared long after the window closed. Pending = still too early to call — we never guess a landing.
High-confidence = the subset of catalysts our extraction graded "High" at publish time, scored the same way.
Events flagged cancelled or withdrawn by the issuer are excluded from the hit-rate.
This scoreboard tracks timing accuracy, not outcome prediction. Catalyst Ahead doesn't predict share-price direction. See .
Not financial advice. Catalyst Ahead is an AI-driven research tool. All projections are inferences from public company announcements. AI-derived inferences from company announcements. Always do your own research and consult a licensed adviser before trading.